Track record · replayed on past seasons
Kim Min-jae, 21, ranked 3rd of 173. The market hadn't put a price on him yet.
Our method didn't exist in 2017, so we replayed it as if it had. Every player was scored blind, with only what was known at the time, against everyone born in the same year. These are the names it would have put in your inbox early.
- 608players our method put in the top 10% of their birth year, aged 18–21
- 43%of them became Big-5 regulars (2+ seasons with 20+ games)
- ~12%the rate across the whole pool
How we replayed it, and why it isn't hindsight
Blind by birth year. To score a player born in 2000, we trained on every other birth year. The ranking never saw how his year turned out.
Only what was known then. Senior games, debut age, youth and senior caps, height, position and the market value set before that season ended. Nothing from later.
Ranked within his year. “3rd of 173” means 3rd among every player born the same year in the same leagues, at the same age.
Already in a big league? Not counted. A player already playing in the Big 5 or a European top flight at that age wasn't a find, so we left him out.
Pool: 1,923 players from K League 1, J1, Brazil and Argentina (born 1988–2001) and 2,664 from eight European selling leagues (born 1995–2003).
Ahead of the market
We kept only players our ranking put clearly higher than their market value did, or who had no market value at all yet.
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Kim Min-jae
age 21, 2017 · Jeonbuk
- Our rank
- 3 / 173
- Market rank
- no value yet
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then 29 league games in his first K League 1 season, already a senior international, centre-back.
-
Éder Militão
age 19, 2017 · São Paulo
- Our rank
- 2 / 85
- Market rank
- no value yet
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 2
What we saw then 22 games in his debut season, youth international, tall centre-back.
-
Lisandro Martínez
age 19, 2017 · Argentina
- Our rank
- 7 / 85
- Market rank
- no value yet
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 2
What we saw then 21 games in his best season by 19, U-20 international, centre-back.
-
Rasmus Højlund
age 18, 2021/22 · Copenhagen
- Our rank
- 8 / 105
- Market rank
- 32
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then Debut at 17, 45 senior games by 18, tall striker.
-
Mohammed Kudus
age 18, 2019/20 · Nordsjælland
- Our rank
- 7 / 129
- Market rank
- 28
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 2
What we saw then Played 78% of league games, 55 senior games, already a senior international.
-
Cristian Romero
age 20, 2018 · Belgrano
- Our rank
- 6 / 148
- Market rank
- 24
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 7
What we saw then U-20 international, tall centre-back. The market had slipped him to 24th; we kept him 6th.
-
Alexis Mac Allister
age 21, 2019 · Argentinos Juniors
- Our rank
- 10 / 184
- Market rank
- 16
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 6
What we saw then 25 games in his best season, 44 in all, already a senior international.
-
Charles De Ketelaere
age 18, 2019/20 · Club Brugge
- Our rank
- 2 / 129
- Market rank
- 14
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then Only 38% of league games, but tall, midfielder, value rising. Top 10% at 18, 19 and 20.
-
Brennan Johnson
age 20, 2021/22 · Nottingham Forest (2nd tier)
- Our rank
- 1 / 250
- Market rank
- 9
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then Every league game, 110 senior games, Wales international.
-
Jesper Lindstrøm
age 19, 2019/20 · Brøndby
- Our rank
- 14 / 214
- Market rank
- 80
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then Played 88% of league games in his second senior season. The market ranked him 80th.
-
Jens-Lys Cajuste
age 19, 2019/20 · Midtjylland
- Our rank
- 4 / 214
- Market rank
- 59
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 3
What we saw then Debut at 16, 75% of league games, 42 senior games.
-
Jørgen Strand Larsen
age 20, 2020/21 · Groningen
- Our rank
- 18 / 262
- Market rank
- 42
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 4
What we saw then Debut at 17, 91% of league games, Norway international, tall striker.
-
Antoine Semenyo
age 20, 2020/21 · Bristol City (2nd tier)
- Our rank
- 20 / 262
- Market rank
- 28
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 3
What we saw then Debut at 17, 96% of league games, 119 senior games in the second tier.
-
Manuel Ugarte
age 19, 2020/21 · Famalicão
- Our rank
- 16 / 187
- Market rank
- 31
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 3
What we saw then 59% of league games, already a Uruguay international. Top 10% at 19, 20 and 21.
-
Antonee Robinson
age 20, 2018/19 · Wigan (2nd tier)
- Our rank
- 12 / 227
- Market rank
- 54
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 5
What we saw then 57% of league games, already a USA international, full-back. The market ranked him 54th.
-
Takehiro Tomiyasu
age 18, 2016 · Avispa Fukuoka
- Our rank
- 3 / 33
- Market rank
- 11
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 5
What we saw then U-17 international, tall centre-back. Top 10% at 18, 19 and 20.
-
Takumi Minamino
age 18, 2013 · Cerezo Osaka
- Our rank
- 2 / 25
- Market rank
- no value yet
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 2
What we saw then Debut at 17, 29 games in his best season, youth international.
-
Kō Itakura
age 21, 2018 · Vegalta Sendai
- Our rank
- 14 / 193
- Market rank
- 86
- Big-5 seasons as a regular
- 3
What we saw then 24 games in his best season, youth international, tall centre-back. The market ranked him 86th.
Where we agreed with the market
These stars were in our top 10% too, but the market rated them just as highly. It shows the ranking works; it doesn't make them discoveries, so we don't claim them as ours.
Vinícius Júnior · Rodrygo · Neymar · Gabriel Jesus · Julián Álvarez · Enzo Fernández · Lautaro Martínez · Alexander Isak · Dominik Szoboszlai · Ryan Gravenberch · Matthijs de Ligt · Benjamin Šeško · Michael Olise · Rúben Dias · Raphinha · Cody Gakpo · Bryan Mbeumo · Eberechi Eze · Darwin Núñez · Nuno Mendes
The next names are in this week's issue.
Free, every Tuesday. Five prospects a week, ranked the same way.
Get the free weeklyData: league appearances from Wikipedia records and FotMob; market values from Transfermarkt (South America & Asia) and FotMob/SciSports estimates (Europe). Collected October 2026. A replay is not a live record — from issue #1 on, every pick is logged with its date.