Issue #1: Arthur Dias, Aranda, Son Jeong-beom and 7 more — balldata
Issue #1, in full. This is exactly what subscribers receive: the complete free Shortlist, and Part 1 of the Pro issue (the Arthur Dias dossier). Everything below uses real players and real data.
Free · Tuesday
The Shortlist #1
20 October 2026 · about 8 minutes
Every week we score every under-21 player in South America's and Asia's main leagues and in Europe's selling leagues against players who were the same age in the past, and pick the ones the numbers say to watch. In our backtest, about 4 in 10 of the players we would have put in the top 10% of their age group became Big-5 league regulars, against 1 in 10 for a random pick.
Conviction pick our model and the transfer market both rank him in the top 10% of his age group. In our backtest, players like that at 21 became Big-5 regulars 53–58% of the time.
Value pick our model's top 10%, not yet the market's: 26–37%, still around three times the average, at a lower price.
Argentina
Tomás Aranda
Value pick19 · left winger / No. 10Boca JuniorsArgentina (1 senior cap)Release clause €17.8mInjured since Aug
Why him
A dribbler who also creates and presses: 98th percentile for dribbles and xA, 96th for recoveries.
Watch out
Loses the ball more than 90% of peers. Out since August, back around December.
Market
Chelsea, Arsenal and Napoli reportedly watching (grade C). Clause rises to €22.3m next season.
Liga Profesional 2026: 20 apps, 1 goal, 3 assists in 1,201 minutes, plus a senior Argentina debut in May. He starts on the left and carries the ball inside: 3.1 successful dribbles and 0.30 expected assists per 90 put him in the 98th percentile on both, and he wins the ball back 7.9 times per 90. The cost is ball security, which is normal for a 19-year-old who carries this much.
Scouting notes · our view
What he does best
Aranda is a carrier first. He completes more dribbles than 98% of players in his position in Argentina, and the dribbles go somewhere: his expected assists are also in the 98th percentile, his box touches in the 93rd and his shot volume in the 96th. What makes him unusual for a creative winger is what happens when he loses the ball. He wins it back 7.9 times per 90 (96th), which says he hunts straight away instead of walking back.
Where he fits
He suits a team that plays with an inverted left winger or a left-sided No. 10 in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1, with a full-back who overlaps to give him the inside lane. Because he presses after losing the ball, he fits counter-pressing coaches better than possession sides that want wingers to hold width and recycle. He is not a crosser or an aerial target (10th percentile for aerials), so a team that relies on crosses from the left would waste him.
How he could develop
The gap between him and a European starter is decision-making: he is dispossessed more than 91% of peers, which is the price of carrying this often but also the habit European coaches will work on first. Two things decide his next year: how he comes back from the injury he picked up in August, and whether Boca make him a regular starter (his share of starts ranks low among peers, 22nd percentile). If both go well, a sale before his release clause rises is the most likely outcome.
Style radar Pro preview
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
44% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 16%
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Attacking
Expected assists (xA)0.3098
Shots2.6296
Possession
Successful dribbles3.0798
Dispossessed (fewer = better)1.959
Defending
Recoveries7.8796
Tackles1.5720
Plays likeThiago Almada (our view): a short, right-footed creator who starts on the left, carries the ball inside and presses straight after losing it.
Closest statistical matches at the same age Pro preview
Fan-made highlight reels show the best moments only. Use the numbers above for the weaknesses.
Korea
Son Jeong-beom
Conviction pick19 · central midfielderFC SeoulKorea U-23First senior seasonEst. €1.1m
Why him
A starter from day one of his first pro season. Top 1% of 19-year-olds in our model.
Best at
Winning the ball high and arriving in the box: tackles 93rd, dribbles 90th, box touches 80th.
Watch out
Doesn't control games yet: touches 14th, recoveries 5th. K League players have historically reached the Big 5 less often.
K League 1 2026: 28 apps, 2 goals, 3 assists. His numbers describe a forward-running No. 8 more than a controller. The heatmap leans to the right half-space and into the final third. He trialled at Bournemouth last December and has said he wants to play in England.
Scouting notes · our view
What he does best
Son's numbers describe a ball-winner who then goes forward. He makes more tackles than 92% of K League midfielders and completes more dribbles than 90%, and he turns that into penalty-box presence: 81st percentile for non-penalty xG, 80th for touches in the box. He also chose to be involved: 28 league appearances in his first professional season, most of them as a starter. For a 19-year-old in a league that rarely trusts teenagers, that is the strongest signal on the page.
Where he fits
He is a box-to-box No. 8 for a high-pressing 4-3-3 or a 4-2-2-2 that wants midfielders to arrive in the box. He needs a controller next to him: his touches (13th) and passes (18th) show he is not the one who sets the tempo. Teams that build patiently through midfield would ask him to do the part of the job he does least; teams that win the ball high and attack quickly would use exactly what he does best.
How he could develop
There are two ways for him to grow. One is to stay the runner and become more efficient in front of goal, the Gallagher route. The other is to drop deeper, take more of the ball and keep his tackling, which would make him a much easier sell to European clubs. Most Korean midfielders who moved young went to Austria, Belgium, Denmark or the Championship first, and that is the realistic first step here too. He has said he wants to play in England.
Where he plays
Touches and actions, K-League 1 2026 league games
Style radar Pro preview
Percentile within league and position. Dashed = a statistically similar past player who made it to Europe
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
44% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 16%
K League base rate at 21: 8% (others 10–11%)
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Attacking
Assists0.1982
Non-penalty xG0.2281
Possession
Successful dribbles1.2590
Touches41.413
Defending
Tackles2.5692
Recoveries2.065
Plays likeConor Gallagher (our view): a runner who wins the ball high, arrives in the box and leaves the passing to others.
Closest statistical matches at the same age Pro preview
Fan-made highlight reels show the best moments only. Use the numbers above for the weaknesses.
Japan
Yuto Ozeki
Value pick21 · attacking midfielderKawasaki FrontaleJapan (2 caps)Est. €0.8m
Why him
Led J1 central midfielders in chances created per 90 in 2025. Already capped by Japan.
Watch out
Only 598 league minutes, mostly off the bench. Duels 20th percentile.
Market
The cheapest name on this week's list. NEC, Gent and others linked (grade C).
J1 2025: 25 apps (3 starts), 598 minutes, with 2.7 chances created per 90 (100th percentile), box touches in the 98th and xA in the 96th. The year before, on loan in J3, he scored 8 and assisted 6. J1 has moved to an autumn–spring calendar, so his 2026/27 season has just started.
Scouting notes · our view
What he does best
Ozeki is a final-third specialist. In his J1 minutes he created more chances per 90 than any central midfielder in the league (100th percentile), and he was also at the top for expected goals (100th) and touches in the box (98th). He drifts between the lines, receives where defenders have to choose between stepping out and holding, and either plays the last pass or arrives himself. A word of caution: those numbers come from 598 minutes, mostly as a substitute, so they are a strong hint, not a settled profile.
Where he fits
He fits as a No. 10 or one of the two attacking midfielders in a 3-4-2-1, or as the left-sided No. 8 in a possession side that keeps the ball high up the pitch. He should be protected from physical duels (20th percentile for duels won %, 8th for aerials), so he needs a ball-winner behind him. This is the profile Dutch and Belgian possession sides have bought from Japan repeatedly.
How he could develop
Everything depends on starts. If he turns his substitute output into 90-minute performances in the new autumn–spring J1 season, the January window becomes realistic. Physically he will need to cope with more contact, and he loses the ball more than most (4th percentile for dispossessed), which tends to improve with more first-team time. Four of his ten closest statistical matches settled in Europe, the best rate in this issue.
Where he plays
Touches and actions, J. League 2025 league games
Style radar Pro preview
Percentile within league and position. Dashed = a statistically similar past player who made it to Europe
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
46% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 10%
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Attacking
Chances created2.71100
Touches in opp. box4.9798
Expected assists (xA)0.2496
Possession
Successful dribbles0.9081
Dispossessed (fewer = better)1.814
Defending
Duels won %44%20
Plays likeDaichi Kamada (our view): drifts between the lines, makes the final pass and gets into the box, but avoids physical duels.
Closest statistical matches at the same age Pro preview
Duels: aerials 2nd percentile, duels won 26th. He defends by position, not by contact.
Superliga 2025/26: 27 apps (26 starts), 2 goals, 2 assists in 2,206 minutes. This season he has started 9 of 10 games, and his expected assists jumped to 0.35 per 90 (96th percentile). His estimated value has gone from €2.1m to €7.3m in fifteen months. Nordsjælland are one of Europe's most reliable selling clubs, so the next step is usually a Big-5 or Eredivisie move rather than another Danish club.
Scouting notes · our view
What he does best
Lähteenmäki is a full-back who plays like a midfielder. His best numbers are all about passing: 81st percentile for long-ball accuracy, 77th for line-breaking passes, 74th for pass accuracy. He receives inside, turns and moves the ball forward through the lines rather than running the touchline and crossing (11th percentile for successful crosses). This season his expected assists have jumped to 0.35 per 90, 96th percentile, which suggests his end product is catching up with his passing.
Where he fits
He belongs in a possession side that inverts its full-backs into midfield, the way Brighton or Bologna have used theirs. In those systems the full-back's passing matters more than his duels. A team that defends deep and expects its full-backs to win aerial battles at the back post would expose his weakest numbers (2nd percentile for aerials won).
How he could develop
His duels are the work-on area (30th percentile for duel win rate), along with ball security under pressure. But the trend is all upwards: a regular starter, ten senior caps at 20, and a market estimate that has more than tripled in fifteen months. Nordsjælland usually sell their best young players straight to a Big-5 or Eredivisie club, and that is the most likely next step here too.
Where he plays
Touches and actions, Superligaen 2025/2026 league games
Style radar Pro preview
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
50% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 14%
European model (8 selling leagues, 2017–2022 seasons)
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Possession
Accurate long balls1.1428
Line-breaking passes7.5577
Pass accuracy %85%74
Successful dribbles0.7368
Dispossessed (fewer = better)1.026
Defending
Aerials won0.202
Plays likeOleksandr Zinchenko (our view): a full-back who plays like a midfielder, receives inside and breaks lines with passes, but is vulnerable in physical duels.
Fan-made highlight reels show the best moments only. Use the numbers above for the weaknesses.
Transfer rumours, graded
B
Arthur Dias (Athletico Paranaense). Athletico reportedly turned down about €21m from Tottenham and want €25–30m. Contract to 2028. Sources: Um Dois Esportes, Banda B
C
Tomás Aranda (Boca Juniors). Chelsea, Arsenal and Napoli said to be watching, no formal offer. Release clause €17.8m, rising to €22.3m. Sources: Sport Witness, El Intransigente
C
Yuto Ozeki (Kawasaki Frontale). NEC named as a possible replacement for Kodai Sano; Gent, Rangers, Girona and Nordsjælland also mentioned. Source: Football Tribe Japan
A = club or established reporter · B = credible outlet, unnamed sources · C = unverified or second-hand
In this week's Pro issue
6 more players not in this email, led by a full dossier on Arthur Dias
Every chart for every player: style radars against past players who made it, shot maps, market-value trends
Deeper reads on today's picks: six closest statistical matches and where they went, risks, prices
Full rankings: top 20 in South America & Asia, top 15 in Europe's selling leagues
Per-90 numbers, percentiles, heatmaps and shot maps: FotMob (Opta data), league games of the current season, compared with players in the same position in the same league. For 'fewer is better' stats a high percentile is good.
'Plays like' is our editorial comparison, not a forecast. 'Closest statistical matches' compare 22 per-90 percentiles with players from the same leagues born 1995–2003, using their seasons up to age 22.
Model scores rank a player against everyone who was the same age in our historical sample. They are probabilities, not promises. Videos are fan highlight reels on YouTube.
Pro · Monday
balldata Pro #1
19 October 2026 · about 25 minutes · subscribers only
A note on comparisons. For each player we show the past players whose numbers at the same age looked most like his, and where they ended up. Read these as a description of the player type, not a forecast. For our featured players, 2 to 4 of each one's ten closest matches settled in a European top flight, close to the 25% rate for the whole sample. Style tells you what kind of player he is. The model score, which uses age, minutes, call-ups and league, is what has predicted who makes it.
Conviction pick our model and the transfer market both rank him in the top 10% of his age group. In our backtest, players like that at 21 became Big-5 regulars 53–58% of the time.
Value pick our model's top 10%, not yet the market's: 26–37%, still around three times the average, at a lower price.
Part 1 · Market-gap watchlist
Players our model ranks in the top 10% of their age group while the market (estimated value) does not yet. Biggest gap first. In our backtest, players like this at 21 became Big-5 regulars 26–37% of the time, about three times the average: lower odds than conviction picks, at a lower price.
Highest score of any 19-year-old in 14 years of data. Tottenham's ~€21m bid reportedly rejected.
Best at
One-v-one defending (dribbled past: 91st pct) and long passing from the left (89th).
Watch out
Aerial duels: 7th percentile. The first thing an English club will test.
Started all 28 Série A games he has played this season, then made his senior Brazil debut under Carlo Ancelotti: on late against Australia, then 60 minutes against India with 56 of 59 passes completed. He joined Athletico's under-15s in 2022 as a centre-forward and was converted there.
He defends in front of him and plays forward early. The heatmap shows most of his work spread across his own half, with clusters right up to the halfway line, which is where a front-foot defender steps in. His pass accuracy is low (26th percentile) because he tries the long diagonal and the line-breaking pass instead of the safe square ball.
Dias defends forwards, not backwards. He is very hard to dribble past (91st percentile), wins the ball back often (85th) and reads passes into his zone (72nd), so the danger usually ends before it reaches the box. Then he does something most centre-backs his age don't: he carries the ball out himself (84th for successful dribbles) and looks for the long diagonal from the left (89th for accurate long balls). Converted from centre-forward at 15, he still plays with an attacker's instinct to move the ball forward.
Where he fits
His natural home is the left side of a back three, or the left centre-back in a high-line back four that wants to build from the back. He needs a partner who attacks crosses, because his aerial numbers are the weakest part of his game (7th percentile for aerials won). A side that defends deep and invites crosses into the box would expose him; a side that presses high and wants its centre-backs to step into midfield would get the best of him.
How he could develop
At 1.87 m the aerial problem is timing and positioning rather than size, which is coachable. His low pass accuracy (26th) comes from attempting difficult passes, not from poor technique; with time he will learn when to play the simple ball, and that number tends to rise. The most likely path is a first move to a club that develops and sells defenders, then a Big-5 step two or three years later. If he stays in Ancelotti's squads, that timeline shortens.
Where he plays
Touches and actions, Série A 2026 league games
Style radar
Percentile within league and position. Dashed = a statistically similar past player who made it to Europe
Estimated market value
SciSports estimate via FotMob. Red dashed = reported asking price
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
44% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 16%
Higher than all 809 nineteen-year-olds in our sample
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Possession
Accurate long balls4.2589
Successful dribbles0.3884
Line-breaking passes1.8074
Pass accuracy %85%26
Defending
Dribbled past (fewer = better)0.1191
Recoveries4.1085
Interceptions1.3472
Duels won %60%60
Aerials won0.807
Clearances3.527
Plays likePiero Hincapié (our view): a left-sided centre-back who defends by stepping in early, carries the ball out and switches play, rather than one who dominates in the air.
Closest statistical matches at the same age
Player
Born
What happened
Lucas Ribeiro
1999
now Internacional (loan)
Wagner Leonardo
1999
now Vitória
Lautaro Valenti
1999
Big-5: Parma (loan), Parma (now Parma)
Natan
2001
Big-5: Napoli, Betis (loan), Betis (now Betis)
Matías Moreno
2003
Big-5: Levante (loan) (now Levante (loan))
Taiyo Koga
1998
now Avispa Fukuoka (loan)
What the model sees. In order: a senior international call-up before 20, playing centre-back (the position our sample converts best), a full season as a starter at 19, and height. Two of his ten closest statistical matches settled in a European top flight. None of them was a full-season starter and a senior international at 19.
The price gap. The public estimate has tripled since March (€1.9m to €5.9m), but it is still a quarter of what Athletico are asking. Brazil's recent benchmark for a young centre-back is Vitor Reis, sold by Palmeiras to Manchester City for around €35m in January 2025.
Club fit (our view).Benfica: plays out from the back, sells on, gives young centre-backs minutes, so the lowest-risk step. Bayer Leverkusen (reportedly monitoring): a back three gives the left centre-back room to carry, with a partner to cover the air. Tottenham (bid reported): possible, but expect him to be eased in.
Next to watch. Whether Ancelotti keeps him in the November squad. A second call-up would make a January sale more likely and push the price up.
Fan-made highlight reels show the best moments only. Use the numbers above for the weaknesses.
Part 3 · More names (Pro only)
One of this week's 5 Pro-only players, unlocked for this sample.
Pro only · Denmark
Prince Amoako Junior
Conviction pick19 · left wingerNordsjællandGhana (senior debut May 2026)Est. €9.2m
Why him
8 goals and 5 assists in 30 starts at 18. Dribbles 95th, box touches 93rd.
Watch out
Pass accuracy 12th, recoveries 5th. All attack, little else yet.
Market
Estimate flat at about €9m since May, so the price hasn't caught up with this season's start.
Superliga 2025/26: 31 apps (30 starts), 8 goals, 5 assists, 2,368 minutes. His shot map shows a winger who gets into the box rather than shooting from distance. This season he is completing 5.2 dribbles per 90, the most in the league.
Prince Junior goes past people. He completes more dribbles than 95% of Superliga wingers and gets into the box more than 93%, and he moves the ball through the lines too (89th for line-breaking passes). His shot map shows a winger who shoots from close range rather than from distance, and that is where his 8 league goals came from. This season he is completing 5.2 dribbles per 90, the most in the league.
Where he fits
He is a wide forward for a team that attacks in transition and isolates its wingers one-on-one. He contributes little without the ball (5th percentile for recoveries, 7th for interceptions), so a coach who demands defensive work from wingers in a pressing system would have to build that into him. In a team that keeps a shape behind him and lets him attack space, he is at his best.
How he could develop
His passing is the gap (12th percentile for pass accuracy), along with his defensive work. Both are common for a 19-year-old winger whose game is built on beating players, and both improve with coaching. His estimated value has stayed flat since May despite 8 goals and 5 assists, so the market has not yet priced his season in. That is the opportunity.
Where he plays
Touches and actions, Superligaen 2025/2026 league games
Style radar
Shot map
Circle size = xG, filled = goal
Estimated market value
SciSports estimate via FotMob
Model rank
Bottom of age groupTop 10%
49% of past top-10% picks at this age became Big-5 regulars · random pick: 16%
Percentile vs league, same position (per 90)
Attacking
Touches in opp. box8.8293
Shots3.0084
Big chances created0.3873
Non-penalty xG0.2568
Assists0.1968
Possession
Successful dribbles2.7095
Pass accuracy %71%12
Defending
Duels won %35%11
Recoveries2.285
Plays likeMohammed Kudus at Nordsjælland (our view): a strong, quick carrier who goes past people and into the box, with the passing still to come.
Fan-made highlight reels show the best moments only. Use the numbers above for the weaknesses.
🔒 4 more Pro-only players this week: Álvaro Montoro, Ignacio Ovando, Kadir Barría, Kees Smit
Part 4 · Tuesday's picks, in more depth
🔒 Pro subscribers get the four free picks again here with every chart: shot maps, market value against asking prices, and all six closest statistical matches.
Part 5 · Rankings and the full database
🔒 Scout database (1064 players, CSV) — Pro
South America & Asia · top 20
#
Player
Club
Pos
Born
Est. value
1
Arthur Dias
Athletico Paranaense
CB
2007
€5.9m
2
Alexandre Pisano
Nagoya Grampus
GK
2006
€0.7m
3
Son Jeong-beom
FC Seoul
MF
2007
€1.1m
🔒 17 more in the full table — Pro
Europe's selling leagues · top 15
#
Player
Club
Pos
Born
Est. value
1
Victor Froholdt
FC Porto (Primeira Liga)
MF
2006
€47.3m
2
Kees Smit
AZ Alkmaar (Eredivisie)
MF
2006
€20.3m
3
Jorthy Mokio
Ajax (Eredivisie)
MF
2008
€11.6m
🔒 12 more in the full table — Pro
The rest of this Pro issue is for subscribers
Part 1: the rest of the market-gap watchlist — players our model ranks in the top 10% that the market does not yet
Part 3: 4 more players who are not in the free issue — Álvaro Montoro, Ignacio Ovando, Kadir Barría, Kees Smit
Part 4: the free picks in more depth: style radars against the past player each one most resembles, shot maps, market-value trends against reported asking prices, and the six closest statistical matches with where they went
Part 5: full rankings, plus the scout database: all 1,064 scored under-21s with contract, injury and minutes, filterable and downloadable as CSV
See Pro plans $10 a month or $100 a year · cancel any time
Per-90 numbers, percentiles, heatmaps and shot maps: FotMob (Opta data), league games of the current season, compared with players in the same position in the same league. For 'fewer is better' stats a high percentile is good.
'Plays like' is our editorial comparison, not a forecast. 'Closest statistical matches' compare 22 per-90 percentiles with players from the same leagues born 1995–2003, using their seasons up to age 22.
Model scores rank a player against everyone who was the same age in our historical sample. They are probabilities, not promises. Videos are fan highlight reels on YouTube.
Transfer reports: see the sources linked in Tuesday's free issue. Montoro: Lance, Folha do Leste. Barría: La Estrella, La Prensa. Ramírez: El Economista, La Página Millonaria.